PDA

View Full Version : Is BoJ to blame or do we need that institution?


tokyo
12-28-2001, 10:16 AM
Who needs salt that is not salty? Who needs a doctor who does not want to heal patients? And who needs the Bank of Japan?

Like salt that never tastes salty, the central bank has for the past two decades consistently failed to do its job. Like a doctor who always makes his patients sicker than they already were, the central bank has consistently worsened the economic situation and the general standard of living. It is time to disband this useless institution.

But can an economy do without a central bank? Not so long ago, very few countries even had a central bank. The United States, for instance, did not have a central bank for much of its history. The U.S. Federal Reserve, now the most famous central bank in the world, also is one of the youngest: It was introduced only in 1913.

Who created the United States' money until then? The same institutions who still create the bulk of money worldwide today: the commercial banks. Before the arrival of central banks, private banks issued the paper money, which is why we still call the stuff "banknotes."

When did banks create the new paper money? For a long time, and in many countries, the paper money had an inscription saying that it was something like a certificate of deposit.

So, surely, the banks issued new paper money when money was deposited with them? Actually, no. When a deposit was made, the amount of banknotes did not increase. The banks only issued new paper slips when someone borrowed money from them. That was the beauty of paper money: The banks then simply pretended that the borrower had deposited money with the banks and the customer got a newly made deposit slip--although they had not actually made a deposit. Banks create money out of nothing when someone takes out a loan.

So who needs central banks? Strictly speaking, they are not necessary for the credit mechanism to work and for economic growth to take place. However, the problem with a system based on private banks printing money was that inevitably they would print too many paper slips. Depending on who got the new cash for what transactions, this would either push up the price of land and real estate--and thus deliver an asset inflation-based economic boom--or it would drive up consumer prices and hence create general inflation.

In either case, a boom would be followed by a slump, with a bust banking system. This is precisely what happened with a great deal of regularity over the past centuries in virtually all countries. The credit cycle of boom and bust was repeated over and over. And each time when the bust happened, banks wondered how one could avoid the downturn or end it faster.

Then the bankers came up with the idea to create a special bank. They told the politicians that its job was to prevent such excessive lending booms by controlling bank lending. In case a boom occurred, the central bank could prevent a major crisis and create a fast recovery.

The politicians and rulers were quickly convinced by the advantages, and so central banks were introduced in most countries about a hundred years or so ago. Now central banks have a monopoly on the creation of paper money, and the banks lost this ability. But this does not mean that banks do not create money any more. As before the introduction of central banks, paper money makes up only a small fraction of all money--today about 5 percent. The rest is still produced by the banks--just as before the arrival of central banks. Banks still do what they have always done: create the majority of the money in an economy. They do this when they extend new loans.

How could a central bank help, when a lending boom had once again produced a banking bust and a major economic recession? Without a central bank it would take a long time--usually a decade or so--for an economy to recover. Banks, burdened with bad debts, would not be able to extend new loans. As bank lending shrinks, overall demand falls. This produces more bankruptcies and unemployment, which in turn increases bad debts and makes banks even less able and willing to lend. As they reduce lending further, the economy moves down the deflationary spiral by another notch.

All this, the founders of central banks argued, could be avoided if there is a central bank. It could simply step in, bail out the banks by printing money and buying the bad debts and create a vigorous economic recovery within a year or so, by buying other assets and thus increasing the money circulating in the economy. There would be no need for large-scale unemployment.

This could be done by the central bank without incurring any costs or without using any tax money. It is possible, because the central bank's money has been made legal tender. Thus it can create as much of it as it wants without ever getting into financial difficulties. A central bank is a bank that cannot go bankrupt.

How about inflation? As every primary school kid knows, too much money leads to inflation. The existence of deflation is evidence that there is too little money. It is the job of the central bank to make sure that there is just enough money so that there is growth, without inflation or deflation.

tokyo
12-28-2001, 10:18 AM
After the painful 1907 banking crisis in the United States (which was triggered by J.P. Morgan), any U.S. congressman who heard these explanations about the role of central banks thought such an institution was the solution to America's problems: the end of the boom-bust cycles. The introduction of the Fed certainly has been good business for its shareholders, which notably include J.P. Morgan. When it came to making good on its promises, however, the Fed has a far patchier record.

The story has been all too similar in Japan. The Bank of Japan was introduced with fanfare in the 1880s, apparently to end the boom-bust credit cycles of the banking system once and for all. Should it fail in preventing a credit boom, it could then step in and ensure a quick recovery.

Unfortunately, the Bank of Japan has failed to do its job on both counts, a failure that created the biggest resource misallocation in peacetime history over the past 20 years. The central bank has closely retraced the familiar terrain of the Fed.

Like the Fed in the 1920s, the Bank of Japan created a dramatic asset bubble in the 1980s by forcing the banks to increase lending sharply. If that had not been bad enough, it then failed to do what it had been created for. New deflation records broken almost every month made it obvious what needed to be done. With the banks paralyzed by their central bank-induced bad debts and thus shrinking lending, the central bank failed to step in and create sufficient money for the economy to grow.

The central bank also did nothing to help the banks get rid of their bad debts. To the contrary, it actually reduced the amount of money circulating in the economy and actively sabotaged government policies to create a recovery. As total credit continued to shrink, deflation worsened, the banks got worse and the slump deepened.

How long will it take for the people to wake up to the fact that their central bank has been working against their interests? Despite its latest public pronouncements, the Bank of Japan is still not creating enough money for a lasting recovery.

It also is not solving the bad-debt problem, although it could do so at zero cost to anyone within one day. The nation does not need such a central bank. It is time for the people to demand that the government revoke its license and arbitrary powers, which it has consistently used in a way highly detrimental to social welfare.

Instead, the government should from now on proceed to issue its own paper money. This can be easily arranged. The paper money is already created by the printing bureau of the Finance Ministry on order from the Bank of Japan. But the former currently has no say over the amount of money that will be injected into the economy.

Rather, the government should simply do what then U.S. President John F. Kennedy did in 1963: Dissatisfied by the lack of money creation of a reluctant Fed, he issued Executive Order 11,110, which decreed the issuance of "U.S. Bank Notes"--paper money of the same design as the familiar Federal Reserve Notes, but issued by the government, not the central bank.

However, it probably takes someone as courageous as Kennedy to challenge the central bank power cartel. Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has not shown any such fortitude.

www.ft.com