Nemzi predskajit VOYNU v ZA!!!

[Mazgi]

http://www.inopressa.ru/details.html?id=4258

[Sash]

Got no comments!
Time to think about getting "GUN"

[SUN6500]

It is usually Russian analytics who exacerbate given situation, as well Rosvooruzhenie who would be very much well-off in case of a war in CA by selling arms to both sides.

[IcyCool]

It's already selling...

[Pakhtakor]

I think that in 2001 we won't see any large scale military conflict, I mean IDU will not attack Uzb in larger scale as "Germans" are saying. Because Uzbek government held a lot of meetings with Taliban in order to rule out possible future attacks. At those meetings our government assured Taliban that Uzb will not be involved in further arms supply to Masood as it used to be before. Also Uzb is putting a lot of pressure on Tajikistan to drive out IDU from there. Also we sharply changed our policy toward Taliban. All these changes, I believe, will keep uzb and Taliban from interfering to each others internal affairs.

[real_Pakhtakor]

I think it is possible that we'll have smth this spring/summer/fall in CA. The reason is that all of the countries in CA have so many disputes with each other. Internally, Uzbekistan has become too weak because of economic reforms failure, outflow of talented people and lack of confidence in the future, as well as lack of credibility of government's policies. This does not mean that I am somehow against Karimov (as Birlik people would interpret) or the government. It is just there is nobody to save and develop the republic - nobody interested in and eager to do this. The problem is that we could not "get the prices right" and screwed up. The dictatorial hue in governence is the weakness and not the strength.

It might sound as nothing to do with the question, in fact, most of these factors are those that might contribute to radicalization of peaceful Uzbeks who are no less dangerous (once radicalized) than Chechens or Afghanis.

However, the bright side of this issue is IMU would not be able to get enough support and resources to lead a major offensive.

Anyway, I think we have at least 2-3 years before a complete chaos, unless something radically good is done by the government.

Uzbekiston pakhta dallalaridan Katta Salom!!!