SKYMAN
03-27-2001, 01:31 PM
When you look at the world map, you can see a bunch of newly emerged countries ended with '-istan' after the dissolution of the USSR in the very heart of the Asia. In our world, where exist very powerful 'dragon' states which can sacrifice everything for their own interests, it feels that it would not be that easy to maintain economic and political stability for these Central Asian states. The land with the precious mineral resources has been always a fatally disputed zone for centuries among the world powers. What will look like Central Asia in the 21st century beginning with the Bush junior Presidency as a world leader? There are strong assumptions that America is going to take a containment position in the world affairs under George W. Bush who does not have even a basic knowledge about world politics (especially on Asia, Bush even could not name the ruler of the Pakistan and Prime Minister of India) . So how that would affect on Central Asia? We cannot be sure of significant diminution in interests of America over the region, however it is possible that the Bush administration will play lesser role than ever. Preferably, that would lead other rival states over Central Asia to strengthen their position, and they would feel more confident in the absence of a mighty influence of America. These states can be China, Japan, Russia, UK, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey for ideological, religious, and geopolitical reasons. In case we put a question if the Central Asian states are ready to protect themselves from the external dangers, the answer will be confidently 'no'. The reason is stubborn authoritative regimes in the region, who lack a mutual understanding among each other would cause definitely a fail in standing against the games being played upon them. These states are politically immature, economically weak, and militarily invalid. Governments are too engaged in their internal problems related with oppressing political opposition and religious groups. Talking about political stability in the region lets reconsider whether there are any beneficial states from disorder in the Central Asia. It feels that there are such states and they are possibly Russia and the USA and mighty owners of Afghanistan drug plantations. Recently both Russian and American authorities were rejected to locate their troops in Uzbekistan to 'protect' Uzbeks from possible Taliban incursion. We cannot neglect the Russian and American passion to locate their troops in Central Asia, the reason is quite clear. Such intentions might lead to further artificial disorders and regional conflicts as happened in the past. Unfortunately, the region is quite suitable for ethnic, cultural, and religious conflicts. Resistance in the society against authoritarians and unhappiness with the government policies in all spheres could result a substantial political crisis in Central Asian states in a near future. Inevitably, that can lead to a very unwanted situation, because some states will try to do their best to benefit from such political chaos. It seems that some opposition parties are waiting for exactly this sort of political upheavals to make any political progress, however they do not understand the outcomes of any political chaos in a long term. In terms of Afghan-Uzbek and Afghan-Tajik relations Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are going to play an important role. We can see that there are many rival states that can change the rules of the game of the very sensitive relations between Afghanistan and Central Asia. Nonetheless, it is clear that they cannot be expected to do any good thinking of their own interests. In addition, Afghanistan's heavy dependence economy on drug-business presents ever-confusing situation. This case is one of the worst threats to the political stability in the region. Surely, we cannot predict the future of the region, what we can say is the future of the Central Asia is worth worrying than dreaming about. Lets pray for the stability, prosperity, and say 'God bless Turkistan'.
I would be very grateful to anyone who shares his thoughts on this issue and join into the discussion about Central Asia's future in the 21st century.
REGARDS.
I would be very grateful to anyone who shares his thoughts on this issue and join into the discussion about Central Asia's future in the 21st century.
REGARDS.