my little investment experiment

[Крейсер]

Hi, all -

Just wanted to share with my compatriots, the results of my stock investment experiment in Uzb.

Circa 2000, I bought shares of a PIF (diversified privatization investment fund). 200 shares for UZS72,000 (about $200 at the time if i remember correctly).

Throughout 7 yrs, the shares yielded at least UZS 150,000 in dividends (smaller in the beginning and bigger at the end). Plus I received additional shares as dividends.

If I don't count the value of the shares, the IRR for cash dividends is 13%pa. With the current value of shares (which I have no idea but can only estimate at UZS100k-200k) the IRR would be in 21-26% range.

If I bought 200 USD for the money and invested at 5% bank rate, my irr would be about 20% (assuming 1440 exchange rate). Of course, this option would pose much less risk than investing in a PIF. But I had a lot of fun going to the shareholders' meeting (in 2000 and 2001) and watching :) So it has some education value too.

No comments sought, just wanted to share this with you (but you are welcome to leave your thoughts).

Avrora

[lilbit]

http://www.asakabank.com/en/individual/savings/
here is rate for savings in Asaka Bank. Let's take the highest rate of 20 % in bank and what you've got (26%). You've much more risk but additional 6% return. Not much for all the risks you had.\

Btw, there is savings accounts that pay more than 20% ;)

[abcd]

In November I purchased 2 call contracts strike price 15 dollars of Etrade options for 200 dollars. After one week the Citi analyst Bhatia in his analysis said that "he does not exclude BK". The stock tanked to 4 bucks at the opening. now I have .02 Dollars. (1000% loss)

This is my litterally 2 cents.

[satik]

I am not an economist though, Investing in PIF is advisable from Islamic viewpoint. Rather than enjoying the interest money paid by the bank.

[cianore]

http://www.asakabank.com/en/individual/savings/
here is rate for savings in Asaka Bank. Let's take the highest rate of 20 % in bank and what you've got (26%). You've much more risk but additional 6% return. Not much for all the risks you had.

Btw, there is savings accounts that pay more than 20% ;)

I once knew a bank in Uzbekistan which paid 300% apy which it should still be maintaining those accounts for only it's employees.

[abcd]

Here is another example (I wish I did that). If last thursday before the market close I had invested 100 dollars into Google 500 call with April expiration, I would make 7900 net profit on the next day.

[Крейсер]

You have to compare the rates at that time, not today.

At that time we were getting about 12% on UZS bank accounts (sure promotional rates existed but they lasted ~1 month or so). but i wanted the upside (as anyone does with the equity) and something more fun. Plus it was not the only money i had.

There are formulae for claculating the risk adjusted return - but I am too lazy to make the claculation because I do not have the variance numbers for the PIF stock price.

take care, all.

[lilbit]

Крейсер, about what time are you talking here?
I'll tell you that interest rates on savings accounts becoming lower year after year, so what's your point?

And risk adjusted return for Uzb stocks much higher than for savings accounts of Uzb banks. And I am reluctant to investing in something that does not give you the value of owning the company. Everybody knows that in Uzb 51% of shares not always give you a chance of owning the company, so what's the point of holding this papers?



8 years ago I openned debit card and deposit account with NBU. Deposited 74500 sums. Spent for about 50 000 during period of holding the card and I still have some 120 000 sums on account. Btw, Never deposited a penny.



My return in one of the stocks I've invested last August is 48% (90% of portfolio) as of today and another one 2% (10% of portfolio). Didn't traded options as didn't fill all the papers required by Ameritrade. Volatile stocks can help make a fortune if one understands the business the company in.

[Frida]

hey there!
i am not a huge stock market player, i just buy here and there, play really safe :D etc.
so today i was just doing some research, blah,blah. and at some point just starting, you know, typing different made up "tickers" and at some point Kazakhmys -- company caught my eye. Their stocks are sky high, around 1700. but when I looked up their history, i noticed that at some point 1000 stocks went down to $13 :shock: how is it possible even? I think it them one day to go back up.... anyhow... here is the link. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AKAZ

[shaddow]

hey there!
i am not a huge stock market player, i just buy here and there, play really safe :D etc.
so today i was just doing some research, blah,blah. and at some point just starting, you know, typing different made up "tickers" and at some point Kazakhmys -- company caught my eye. Their stocks are sky high, around 1700. but when I looked up their history, i noticed that at some point 1000 stocks went down to $13 :shock: how is it possible even? I think it them one day to go back up.... anyhow... here is the link. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AKAZ

Kazmys is actually listed in London, so these are not dollars, but pences. Kazmys few days was one of the top winners in the market. I think this is general trend, for mining and especially oil companies' shares (see for example Tullow oil, Cairn plc, Venture Production, Melrose Resources, etc.) to go up due to current market environment. For example financial services companies were doing not pretty well, but after GBP 50 bbillion bail-out by BoE, you can see very slight improvement.

[AKULA]

Hehehe, if I bought another appartment which was selling in neighbour house for only 15000 U.S. $ (2005 y), then only a year after I may sell it for double or more price.

Now these appartment may be sold for 40000-50000 U.S. $ and near future the price for R.P. will increase again untill there are new appartments will be built.

So, don't buy any shares or other kind of papers, buy RP and make huge money without any risk.

[SeminoleX]

Buy energy and oil stocks.

[Prenomad]

hey there!
i am not a huge stock market player, i just buy here and there, play really safe :D etc.
so today i was just doing some research, blah,blah. and at some point just starting, you know, typing different made up "tickers" and at some point Kazakhmys -- company caught my eye. Their stocks are sky high, around 1700. but when I looked up their history, i noticed that at some point 1000 stocks went down to $13 :shock: how is it possible even? I think it them one day to go back up.... anyhow... here is the link. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AKAZ

Kazakhmys, one of my favorite stocks - it represents (jonajon-qondosh :)) Kazakhstan, very well performing company, have good management, solid production base, reserves and huge potential, with relatively low transportation cost to Chinese market that is pushing copper, zinc, gold and silver prices up and etc. you can make your own judgment by reading about it on the web, its Annual Report 2007can be accessed at: http://www.kazakhmys.com/uploads/AnnualReport2007Final.pdf .

Kazaksmys is mainly listed in London Stock Exchange, but you can trade it through TD Ameritrade or Etrade brokers, both of them provide access to FTSE 100 shares.

Indeed, Kazakhmys shares doing very well, Ј17.20 as of today, was about Ј19.00 on March 12, 2008. As you mentioned, it went down to Ј950 on 22/01/2008, but it happened to due the worldwide stock market crash on that day...Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled to 11250 points in morning futures trades..., it had impressive rally since (about 105 % rise). Two main reasons: high commodity prices...and recent failed takeover bid attempt from ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation). I bought Kazakhmys shares at Ј520 for my ISA account in October 2005, trading since whenever the share price rises or falls...

[nelegal]

Hehehe, if I bought another appartment which was selling in neighbour house for only 15000 U.S. $ (2005 y), then only a year after I may sell it for double or more price.

Now these appartment may be sold for 40000-50000 U.S. $ and near future the price for R.P. will increase again untill there are new appartments will be built.

So, don't buy any shares or other kind of papers, buy RP and make huge money without any risk.
True. And preferably, buy not from there where everybody is buying now. The hottest investment in Uzb. is now in small cities. Abandoned apartments, or those in really bad shape, are sold for very cheap prices.

Here is an example:
An apartment bought in Tashkent for $30 000, rose in price threefold within two years. In a small city (X), the price of an apartment was $1000 at that time, which was recently sold for six thousand.

[Prenomad]

hey there!
i am not a huge stock market player, i just buy here and there, play really safe :D etc.
so today i was just doing some research, blah,blah. and at some point just starting, you know, typing different made up "tickers" and at some point Kazakhmys -- company caught my eye. Their stocks are sky high, around 1700. but when I looked up their history, i noticed that at some point 1000 stocks went down to $13 :shock: how is it possible even? I think it them one day to go back up.... anyhow... here is the link. http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON%3AKAZ

There are only two blue-chips company shares from former Soviet Union traded in FTSE 100, both of them from Kazakhtan :). Kazakhmys and ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation). Shares of ENRC has been traded since December 2007 in London, joined FTSE 100 at the end of last month, was Ј540 on first trading day, now it is Ј14.20, good for our Kazakh brothers and Kazakhstan :). Last week Kazakh government announced announced plans to impose export duty on metals, it may have a bit negative impact on share price, but limited...

I think, both shares have an upside potential. However, if one has intention buying of Kazakhmys shares, he/she should learn company carefully, consider current high market volatility, credit crisis, US recession fears, high commodity prices, and make decision accordingly.

Now, on technical side. Kazakhmys shares currently found good support at Ј14.94, that became a pivot point (a daily chart below), so one can expect further rise in short term, plus ENRC's takeover bid attempt is not ”dead yet”, those people who stand behind ENRC are very powerful ones, have good connections in Astana, and somehow could get support for its bid. Next upside targets are Ј19.23, Ј2083 and Ј2212. However, if it goes bellow Ј14.94, then targets would be Ј12.82 and Ј11.55 respectively. Stochastic and RSI is above neutrality area of 50. The MACD is still positive. Plus, the stock is above its 20 and 50 day MA. But, although share price rising main technical indicators showing downward slope, which means recent rally loosing a steam, and short term correction may occur.

[uzbekcfa2]

Here is another example (I wish I did that). If last thursday before the market close I had invested 100 dollars into Google 500 call with April expiration, I would make 7900 net profit on the next day.

how about yahoo? their quarter earnings were surprisingly good. yahoo stocks went up, but microsoft is not gonna raise its bid for yahoo. what a pity!:D

[lilbit]

"I could . . . , I would . . . ". Can somebody tell me how they actually did??


Nobody interested in what you could do, but there is an interest how you did and why

[Amiri Turkiston]

in 2002, I have invested to following stocks:

Coca-cola
MS
Boeng

in a 6 monthssss, I got 2000$ GAIN :-)
I was lucky enough....

---

But I wasn't in charge of all necessary transactions, that's why I can't simply tell, how I did it :-)

[lilbit]

in 3 months of investing in RMBS I've got ROI of 43%, after 7 months I have 56% (not yet annualized). Waiting for licenses of their product to IBM, INTC and royalties payed by Nanya and Samsung.

SNDK performed worse (7% in 3 months) but it's performance as of business good enough that allow me think about 25-45% of annualized ROI.