Boshlandi..

[Duma]

1.Xerox is cutting 4,000 (+2000 later this year) more jobs to regain the control of its costs.
2.DaimlerChrysler is about to cut 26,000 jobs. (1/4 of total workforce)
3.Rolls-Royce with its restructuring axes 600 jobs.
4.Motley Fool lays off third of its staff.
5. Amazon.com will be laying off 1,300 of its employees. Dot-Coms are dying out.
6.Ford's profits fell down by 33%,
7.Due to weak demand Dell is ready to cut back up to 10% (4,000 workers) of its workforce.
8. US motor industry and tech industry hit the ground. Stocks are sliding down. Nasdaq, the index of leading technology firms, which lost 2.31% of its value, falling by 65 points.
9. UK is also facing a slowdown.
10. US is the major export market for Asians. Asia is about to plunge into another financial crisis. Though it won't be on a large scale like in 1997.

I mentioned only a small part of what's going on. There are a lot more. You name it. This will definitely affect us too. It might be bad for us in terms of economic reforms. Or it might also be good. Because i think that interest rates cuts in US, will likely affect the value of a dolar. Means a weaker dollar for us.
I'd like to hear your thoughts about this.
What do you think?
Note: In the above paragragh, by "us" i meant Uzbekistan, not umidies. Weaker dollar is certainly frustrating for me and you [umidies] :)

[Mr. X]

Yeap! get ready :)

Actually it was kind of obvious about 6 mo ago. It is more obvious if you work for a small shop. They are the first to go down.

Let's hope that rate decrease and tax cut will save this economy. Otherwise, the rest of the world may end up in a recession...

Mr. X

[just]

This is being discussed on the Disscussion Board, under the topic "Global recession?".

I think the recession will not take place or will not be substansial as US can use both monetary as well as fiscal policy to stimulate economy and accelerate Aggregate Demand.

however Asia and developing countries which are export oriented to the US will suffer more than US itself. Also it will affect Japan (whosse 30% of export goes to the US) which is trying to recover from long recession.

Uzbekistan may benefit from it as its debt will be cheaper in real terms as dollar weakens. As we don't have very open economy it will not cause any big problem to us.

US actually has already cut its interest rates twice in January by 0.5% each time. I think it will cut it again in order to stimulate investments in economy.

As to tax-cuts, Bush has proposed a $1.6 trillion ten year tax cut package, but democrats are against this saying that:

1) it's too big and will negatively effect government spending on medicare, etc.

2) the tax cut plan is more oriented to richer population. (which is good for economy as richer ppl are more likely to make investments than average or poor population, BUT bad socially as makes income distribution uneven)

both democrats and republicans have equal votes in the parliament so may be Bush's tax cut plan will not be approved, and instead a moderate $700-900 mln tax cut implemented.

but Alan Greenspan has favoured Bush's proposal, moreover America has big budget surplus, so I think Bush's plan will be approved.

nevertheless it will take time and the final decision is to be made in July this year according to Republicans.

by the way UK has also cut its interest rate by 0.25%, to make sure it will not be affected by US' slowdown. this means umidies in UK will also suffer from weaker sterling :) but not that much as those who are in the USA.

[just]

This is being discussed on the Disscussion Board, under the topic "Global recession?".

I think the recession will not take place or will not be substansial as US can use both monetary as well as fiscal policy to stimulate economy and accelerate Aggregate Demand.

however Asia and developing countries which are export oriented to the US will suffer more than US itself. Also it will affect Japan (whosse 30% of export goes to the US) which is trying to recover from long recession.

Uzbekistan may benefit from it as its debt will be cheaper in real terms as dollar weakens. As we don't have very open economy it will not cause any big problem to us.

US actually has already cut its interest rates twice in January by 0.5% each time. I think it will cut it again in order to stimulate investments in economy.

As to tax-cuts, Bush has proposed a $1.6 trillion ten year tax cut package, but democrats are against this saying that:

1) it's too big and will negatively effect government spending on medicare, etc.

2) the tax cut plan is more oriented to richer population. (which is good for economy as richer ppl are more likely to make investments than average or poor population, BUT bad socially as makes income distribution uneven)

both democrats and republicans have equal votes in the parliament so may be Bush's tax cut plan will not be approved, and instead a moderate $700-900 mln tax cut implemented.

but Alan Greenspan has favoured Bush's proposal, moreover America has big budget surplus, so I think Bush's plan will be approved.

nevertheless it will take time and the final decision is to be made in July this year according to Republicans.

by the way UK has also cut its interest rate by 0.25%, to make sure it will not be affected by US' slowdown. this means umidies in UK will also suffer from weaker sterling :) but not that much as those who are in the USA.

[boyscout]

We all know that economy has a cycle. Right now US are experiencing the slowdown of economy, so I guess it is no big deal in terms of long term economic stability. Two or three years after it is gonna recover from the recession and everything will be allright.

One more fact on laying the employees off:
Montgomery ward one of the biggest department store chains is closing off more than 250 of its stores nationwide. That means more than 1500 employee lay offs.

Cheer up guys, this is all temporary :)

[just]

boyscout, 2-3 year long recession is serious one, you must be pessimist :), in fact now interest cuts show positive results, hope the following message predicts the future:

U.S. Economy: Fed Grows More Confident About Growth Prospects

Washington: The threat of a U.S. recession is fading, several Federal Reserve policy makers
have said in recent days, suggesting they may not push borrowing costs much lower.

``A lot of the traditional signs of a recession are simply not visible,'' said William Poole,
president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, in an interview.

His comments echo those of other central bankers. Chicago Fed Bank President Michael
Moskow said Wednesday that growth will rebound in the second half of this year. New York
Fed President William McDonough on Monday characterized the current slowdown as a
``very severe inventory correction'' limited to manufacturing. And Dallas Fed President
Robert McTeer said Friday the worst may be over for the economy.

Policy makers will cut interest rates in March, ``but after that next easing the Fed may find
that it's done,'' said Michael Englund, chief economist at Standard & Poor's MMS in
Belmont, California. ``If the data show consumer spending remains healthy, by May or June
we'll know whether Poole is right about the economy. And if he is, there'll be little pressure
on the Fed'' to cut rates further, he said.


from bloomberg news

[SSS]

oimim