What do you think?

[Sanatullo]

Hi all,

This message is the continuation of other messages regarding the real estate market.

When I was on my summer vacation, I have worked in "Uzjilsberbank"'s Samarkand branch. Besides I gained some experience in the real estate market. The story was like that.

It was in Samarkand. A person came to me and said that he had some money, and wanted to invest somewhere. I suggested him to buy couple of apartments since their prices were very low comparing with the past prices. I thought the prices would go up. Since many people who lived in the apartments were Russian, and the government was going to establish the visa regime to go to Russia, most of the russian were leaving the country. I thought it was the shock time in the real estate market. That person believed in my knowledge of economics and the logic behind this assumption. He bought some apartments in the attractive areas. :) The buying procedure was linked to several bureaurocratic steps. If you are interested in that, you may read a report on the real estate market at www.uzreport.com.

I was wrong regarding the investment. The prices went down. Now, taking the market prices for those apartments and the opportunity cost of that money, that person lost around $1100 for each apartment. Now, I feel myself shameful.:)

At the same time, I was working in Uzjilsberbank.(Actually I worked for two weeks.:)) I am not going to tell ya about the history of this bank. I'll just stop on the topic, for which they boast and for which they were praised.

That bank has some contractors who will build apartments for them. Then they will buy those apartments and sell to the people. I mean they sell apartment through opening credit lines. The contractors' prices are amazing. While the ongoing market price for the apartments were around UZS 500 thds, their prices were around UZS 3.3 mln. Of course people won't pay all the amount of the contract. The part of the cost is covered by the government. That's by the budget. Then, people will pay the remained cost in a several years. To say the truth, people win from that contract, because of the ongoing inflation. But somebody won and somebody lost the huge sum of money. I hope you understood whom I mean.

Now, I am thinking, why not to restructure our real estate market? Why not to establish the centralized real estate market? To be continued in next message.

[Sanatullo]

So why not to establish the centralized market? Here I mean the following

1) Allow firms and companies to engage in buying and selling apartments. That's, to allow them to be the brokers and dealers of the market. Those people should be the main players of the market, so that whenever the people wanted to acquire the apartment or sell the apartment they could buy/sell it. Of course there should be some qualification as well as margin requirements from those people.

2) The margin should be the tax base for the transaction, not the contract price of the apartment.

3) Allow banks to lend the mortgage loans.

4) Allow firms and companies to establish the real estate rental businesses.

What is the logic behind these assumptions?

1) Here, we will significantly reduce the liquidity risk.

2) The tax burden would be avoided.

3) It will be easy to determine the market price of real estate for the official usage.

4) Since the liquidity risk would be very low, and there would be access for the cheap mortgage loans, a lot of people can acquire the apartments.

5) The behavior of some people would be against the unwanted inflation. That's, since the interest rate is tied to the inflation rate, it would be for the favor of people to have the lower inflation rate. Because, if the inflation rate increases, people have to pay a lot for their mortgage loans.

What are some other factors?

Factor-1) The real investment would decrease until the market will adjust. That's until the market will reach its equilibrium price. Or, the cost of the building would decrease. Both of these are considered as the disadvantage for people who are in favor of the current system.

Factor-2) Since a lot of people try to acquire the apartments, or because of the speculation, the prices of apartments would go up. Since prices would go up, more and more people can't buy the apartments. In order to increase the demand, there should be either low real interest rates or the high real income for people. While these are the demand side factors, the supply side would be similar to the factor-1. However, although the price increase would be problem for people who are going to acquire the apartment, it would be "the wealth effect" for people who already own the apartments. It means some percentage of the population began to feel themselves as the wealthy people as in America.:)

Regards,

Sanatullo

[kripo]

What is your question where to invest or are you talking only about the RE market?

[kripo]

Oh yes now it is about the RE then.

I think the factor #2 at the bottom of your 2nd message is true if your propositions
about "centralizing" ( but actually it is freeing of RE market what you meant)
work + tay office making good money on land transfer tax which in your proposal should be eliminated (point #2). So, naturally government doesn't want the situation like in factor #2! But regarding the factor #1 it is not clear enough what you mean.

I think the point #5 of the effects of freeing the RE market is ultra-theoretical as
there is no (or very small, it is difficult to predict even for the best economists) relation between the behaviour of people and inflation (accord. interest rates) in this particular case of RE market; and moreover people may want anything but won't get it!

And, in relation factor #1 one shouldn't forget that the population UZ is growing and the State social policy is strong i.e. government will keep to build cheaper houses.

Anyhow, the RE is not only apartments and it has low liquidity risk if you are smart enough
to ensure it before you buy sth. - an appartment, building or land.

[King]

Assolomu aleikum Sanat!
I would love to join this debate but first lets clarify some points of your second message
1. You propose to let some firms and companies to engage in the RE market. What do you mean by "letting them" and what these firms are? From your 4th point I guess you want somehow to induce existing companies to swich to the rental business. Given that RE business requeres substantial cash(asset) endowments the only candidates are big government entreprises and foreign firms. Foreigners are obviously excluded, they have their own business, and we are left again with gov.
2. Sanat imagine yourself in the position of the bank manager. How would you determine the eligibility criteria for a mortgage loan. Would you lend Ј20000 for a period of 25 years to a typical Uzbek citizen, who has an average salary of Ј100pm, and no job security in the future? Or would you rather consider a businesmen, who earned Ј10000 last year but who is not sure will he earn Ј2 next month. Given this level of uncertainty would you stay in this business at all.

At present, the only use of the open RE market, in my view, is the provision of tranparency in prices and better information channeling between potential buyers and sellers. The first firms in the uzbek RE industry will serve this role of intermediares, and will give policymakers necessary experience on which to base the regulatory framework for the industry. And this legal system, Sanat, will allow banks and companies to profitably and safely enter the industry.

[Sanjar]

Hello there,


Sanatullo, may I know, what happened to that guy, who used your advice? Did he take any actions against you or the company you worked for?


If you know, he, the guy who lost around $1100 for each apartment, depending on your advice can sue you (Sanatullo) in negligence (negligent advice), which caused pure economic loss.

Peace.
SJ.

[Sanatullo]

Assalomu aleykum,

Below, I tried to answer to the questions of Kripo and King.

Kripo> but actually it is freeing of RE market what you meant

Sanat> You were right in this assumption

Kripo> So, naturally government doesn't want the situation like in factor #2! But regarding the factor #1 it is not clear enough what you mean.

Sanat> In reality, it is not the government who doesn't like that situation. It is "people" who are in favor of that situation, don't want it. As you know, the assessing the real estates is very complicated and beaurocratic in Uzbekistan. By freeing the market, there wouldn't be any problem in that topic.

Kripo> I think the point #5 of the effects of freeing the RE market is ultra-theoretical as there is no (or very small, it is difficult to predict even for the best economists) relation between the behaviour of people and inflation (accord. interest rates) in this particular case of RE market

Sanat> In that assumption, I meant "the debt overhang" situation. That's by tying the population with the debt, you will increase the confidence as well as the participation of the public in the monetary policy making. Actually the debt overhang would be the last condition of that policy, where the population would be almost entirely tied to the debt.
If you are interested in that, I would advise you to learn the market situation in the USA. (Here, I don't mean that USA is in the debt overhang.)Then try to answer this question Why ordinary people much care about the role of Alan Greenspan in the USA?

Kripo> And, in relation factor #1 one shouldn't forget that the population UZ is growing and the State social policy is strong i.e. government will keep to build cheaper houses

Sanat> Kripo, tell me one thing. Why should the government build an apartment for UZS 3.3 while the market price is UZS 500? (this data is for the summer of 1999) What does this situation mean to you? Besides, who are those people that government took under its social protection?:)

Kripo> Anyhow, the RE is not only apartments and it has low liquidity risk if you are smart enough to ensure it before you buy sth. - an appartment, building or land.

Sanat> Somehow, you are right. Besides, I also have some information regarding the situation in the real estate market. I also knew that a lot of tricks are being done through the real estate market. I knew that my assumptions would hurt those people. But I think that there should be the win-win-win (people, businesses, government)situation.

King> You propose to let some firms and companies to engage in the RE market. What do you mean by "letting them" and what these firms are?

Sanat> I think those firms should become the market makers in the real estate market. It is like "specialist" in NYSE. The structure of market would look like to the structure of the NASDAQ, since there would be a lot of players in the market.

King> From your 4th point I guess you want somehow to induce existing companies to swich to the rental business.

Sanat> I thought about the legalizing the rental business. Besides, you are somehow right regarding your other arguments. But, I think the situation would be consequently developed.

King> Sanat imagine yourself in the position of the bank manager. How would you determine the eligibility criteria for a mortgage loan...

Sanat> In your question I reply with question. Do you think the person who will buy an apartment is a person who earns UZS 100 a month, or an ordinary worker working in the factory?
I think the person who buys the apartment is a person who has some savings and some flow of income. Under our current situation in Uzbekistan, it is very difficult to estimate people's income. Or am I wrong?
Now imagine the situation. There is the low liquidity risk. You can sell you property anytime you want. Shunday ekan nima uchun usha mulkni sotib olib, boshka birovga sotib bulmaydi. Bu yerda fakatgina siz mulkning yarmini nakd, yarmini esa nasiyaga sotasiz. Albatta bunday mulkni usha mulkni sotib olishni hohlaydiganlar sotib oladi. Buning uchun ular ma`lum vakt mablag` jamg`argan bulishadi. Bank arzon kredit taklif kilgandan keyin, siz nima uchun jamg`armangizning yarmini saklab kolmaysiz? Bu yerda bank uzok muddatli kredit taklif kilmasa ham buladi. Lekin kontraktni kurib chikayotganda ikki tomonlar ham ratsional bulishlari kerak. Yani tanish bilishchilik, byurokratiya bulmasa, holat albatta yahshi bulishi kerak.

Fikrlarni kutib koluvchi

Sanatullo

[Sanatullo]

Firklarga qo`shimcha kilib, avtomobil bozorini va kreditlarini berishim mumkin. U yerdagi holat qay yo`sinda olib boriladi? Bir ko`rib chiqing. Yani bu yerda men rivojlangan bozorlarni nazarda tutayapman.

[Sanatullo]

Sanjar,
Actually that guy is one of my close relatives.
Sanatullo

[aziz]

rebyat ya konechno ne spec., no kak naschet prostih lyudey, rabochih na zavodah itd. kotorim toje gdeto nujno jit. tem boleye chto yesli situatsiya stanet takovoy kak sanat predlagayet v pure vide, to vsya social poltika pravitelstva poletit k chertyam. i vo vtorih, chto yesli (imagine) kvartiri nachnutsa skupatsa inostrantsami u kotorih v otlichii ot nashih grajdan, svobodnih deneg pobolshe budet? i togda chto oni nachnut nam diktovat svoi tseni? a naschet rental po moyemu na etom v blijayshem budushem nevozmojno delat dengi, tak kak u lyudey netu takih deneg. poka.

[Investor]

before we go to this the question on mortgages, it is cruial for us to consider effect to that market. What makes our mortgage to move or being volitale?
The first thing is to consider how far our markets are efficient? Fixed and flexible interest rates ( households)? Interest rate parity. and of course government policy towards those markets?

[King]

Assolomu aleikum!
Sanatullo you hit the point I wanted to stress. You are right, it is difficult to estimate the future income flow. But having said that why do you assume that a person who is going to buy a house has the predictable future cash flow? How do you know it if this person himself isn't sure? On the other hand if he has enough savings why does he need mortgage at all. You also said that the bank will be able to partly restore the value by selling the house in the case of default- only partly since the sell price will be lower.

But what happens if the borrwer devalues the house or escapes with the money? I mean, how will the state protect the rights of the borrowers and lenders? Surely we need a consistent set of regulations in place to deal with this situations and with the situation Aziz mentioned before. House is the place to live and should not be viewed as the mean for storage and accumulation of wealth.
Best wishes!

[Sanatullo]

Assalomu Aleykum,

Guyz, let us look what is the situation right now, and how can we make it better? May be later, we will think about other stuff.

1) Whether you want or you don't want, we have the huge excess labor supply. Almost 25-35% of labor force is either unemployed or underemployed. So it means, the real wages would be stable for the long period of time. They won't rise in near future. If you consider the wage as the main source of income, in general, the income of population wouldn't rise. In order to increase the real wage, there should the real unexpected boom in our country. However it is unlikely.

2) Although the interest rate is around 30-45% annually in the banks, the black market interest rate is around 10-15% monthly, besides mostly they are hedged to the dollars. In annual rates, it means the black market's interest rate is around 120-220% in dollar terms.

3) Whether you want or you don't want, I think the government can't handle all the stuff with the social problems of the people. Today, I can say that the government's efforts in social support is almost nonsense. Let's look realistically. Could you afford to live normally with your one month stipends?
I think the government should not give the fish for the people, it should give or create an environment where the people themselves could catch that fish. Basically the government should give people the tool to catch the fish.

4) Today, our government welcomes the foreign investment. So the purchase of the Uzbek property brings us the foreign investment. In general terms, people should win from the FDI. Although Aziz was afraid of the FDI,it will continue to be our dream.

5) I think you will take into consideration all these conditions.

6)
King> But what happens if the borrwer devalues the house or escapes with the money? I mean, how will the state protect the rights of the borrowers and lenders?

Sanat> In order to devalue the house, the prices should decline by 50%.It means the house sold UZS 1 mln should drop to as much as UZS 500 thds. It means the country has a real crisis. Because, there should be such a shock in the short period of time.

Investor> before we go to this the question on mortgages, it is cruial for us to consider effect to that market

Sanat> Investor, Although they are not too specific, I have posted some effects in one of the beginning messages. Probably, you haven't read it.


7)I think, it is time to recognize that we are going toward the wild capitalizm. We should recognize that not all people can afford to buy an apartment, and not all people think that they are equal. There always was inequality, and it will remain. You can't fight against it with the administrative tools. If you try, you will lose, you won't win. Just think, if you will confiscate a person's wealth blaming him that he earned his wealth illegally, what will you do to that person? You will lose his confidence to you. What does it mean if this is done to many people? I think, it means you are losing the confidence of your rich people. Is it good? I think it is not.
Of course, I am also against the control of wealth by couple of people. I think, Government should fight effectively with such kinda people. But it doesn't mean to cut all richs' fat.
It seems we have kinda changed our topic.:) Anyway, let's return to the topic.

Ok, if you guyz think that the centralized real estate market is very bad, what do think about the auto market? Or Stock market? Because, the principles laid on those markets are very similar to the above posted opinions? Do you think we should continue to buy a car by cash? Do you think that the companies stock shouldn't freely owned by people?

Regards,

Sanatullo

[kripo]

Sanatulloh asked me some questions so let me to briefly answer them

Sanatulloh > In reality, it is not the government who doesn't like that situation. It is "people" who are in favor of that situation, don't want it...By freeing the market, there wouldn't be any problem in that topic.

kripo > 1."people" = government
2. Free market + democracy go hand by hand.
3. And who said we don't have democracy in UZ :)

Sanatulloh > > In that assumption, I meant "the debt overhang" situation. That's by tying the population with the debt, you will increase the confidence as well as the participation of the public in the monetary policy making. Actually the debt overhang would be the last condition of that policy, where the population would be almost entirely tied to the debt.
I would advise you to learn the market situation in the USA ...Then try to answer this question Why ordinary people much care about the role of Alan Greenspan in the USA?

kripo > No thank you! :) I don't care why ppl care about Alan Greenspan. As for the "debt overhang", I am not aware how things are in the US, but don't u think that government is in a position now that people do not trust it in money matters at all. So forget about tying up them by debt. The small #s of "zaems" that gmnt issues that's all what it can do. Of course, it can force ppl in doing things; but is it a solution?

Sanatulloh> Kripo, tell me one thing. Why should the government build an apartment for UZS 3.3 while the market price is UZS 500? (this data is for the summer of 1999) What does this situation mean to you? Besides, who are those people that government took under its social protection?

kripo > Now, Sanatulloh I didn't expect that question from you - I know you personally. So, u say gmnt influence makes it so that the prices are UZS 500,000 and not UZS 3,300,000 (the #s were given by urself). It is the essence of social policy where the gvmnt subsidizes the construction of houses for the growing # of pplation.
And ppl under the gvmnt's protection are the pplation of UZ. No other comment is appropriate here. The gvmnt throws the meet and it is their job to catch it when it is still in the air ... .

And finally, you started to talk about stock market. I would suggest let's talk abput it in say 10 years time; maybe it will worth then the spent time on the topic.

[Sanatullo]

Kripo,

Menimcha bu yerda bir birimizni umuman tushuna olmadik. Shuning uchun o`zbek tilida yozishni makul ko`rdim.

1)Kripo> people" = government
Free market + democracy go hand by hand.
And who said we don't have democracy in UZ

Sanat> Hech kim O`zbekistonda demokratiya yo`q degani yo`q. Men bu argument orqali ma`lum bir guruh odamlar 500 ming so`m turadigan uy joyni 3.3 million so`mga narhlamoqdalar demoqchiman. Ushbu 3.3 million so`mning kattagina qismi davlat byudjetidan chiqadi. Men bu argument bilan davlat 3.3 million so`mning bir qismi o`rnida nima uchun 500 ming so`mning bir qismini to`lamasin demoqchiman. Bunday narhlashning asosiy sabablaridan biri, menimcha, ushbu binolarning narhini aniqlovchi aniq bozor bulmasligidadir.

2) Kripo> but don't u think that government is in a position now that people do not trust it in money matters at all....

Sanat> Ayni davlatning yurgizayotgan monetar politikasiga ishonchsizlik mening yuqorida aytib o`tgan asosiy mavzularimdan biridir. Men yuqorida ta`kidlagan fikrimda, davlat xalqdan emas, balkim xalq davlatdan qarz oladi. Mening nazarimda, hozirda, buning uchun bizlarning banklarimiz kerakli miktorda reservelarga ega. (reference IMF CR-2000. Statistics on Banking system of Uzbekistan) Xalqga kreditlarni ochish orkali biz mavjud qora bozor prosent stavkalarini katta miktorda pasaytirgan bulardik. Boshkacha qilib aytsak, mamlakatda prosent stavkalari bozordagi procent stavkasining talab va taklifiga yakinlashgan bo`lardi.
Bu esa ma`lum miktorda monetar siyosatning effektiv bo`lishiga olib borishi aniq.

3) Kripo> Now, Sanatulloh I didn't expect that question from you - I know you personally....

Sanat> Germaniyda tanishlarim ko`p. Masalan Islom aka.:) Kim bulsangiz ham salomimni qabul qiling.
Endi mavzuga qaytsak. Davlatning asosiy maqsadi aholini sosyal himoya qilish. Tug`rimi? Shunday ekan, nima uchun bir guruh samarasiz bulgan firmalarni subsidiya qilish kerak ekan? Davlat o`zining maqsadini bozorda mavjud bulgan talab va taklif orkali ham qondirishi mumkin. Hozir mavjud talab va taklifga ko`ra ko`chmas mulk narhlari firmalarning qurayotgan yangi ko`chmas mulklaridan kamida 3-4 marotiba arzon. Bu narsa, bozorda yangi binolarga talab bulmasa ham yangi binolar qurilmoqda degani. Agar markazlashgan ko`chmas mulk bozori tashkil qilinsa, yangi binolar qurgan firmalar yoki qurilishni arzonroqqa taklif qilishadi, yoki ular vaqtinchalik ishlashni tuxtatib qo`yishlari kerak. Oldingisi keraksiz harajatni kesish bulsa keyingisi, vaqtinchalik real investisiyaning pasayishi degani. Lekin eng asosiysi bozorni markazlash orkali talab va taklif paritetiga yetishgan bulardik.

4) Kripo> And finally, you started to talk about stock market. I would suggest let's talk abput it in say 10 years time; maybe it will worth then the spent time on the topic.

Sanat> Menimcha bizlarda pay bozori rivojlanishi uchun yetarli baza mavjud. Fakat ushbu bazadan effektif ravishda foydalana olayotgan institusiyanal tashkilotlar, va qolaversa yetarli darajada qonuniy baza mavjud emas.

Fikrlarimni yanada aniqrok bildira oldim degan umidda,

Hurmat ila

Sanatullo(h)

[kripo]

Sanatullo,

Salomingizni qabul qildik siz ham salomat bo'ling !!!

Men sizni tushungandim, ammo siz meni tushunmabsiz; radio-televideniedagi gapni kulayotgan bashara bilan "who said we don't have democracy" deb yozganimni tushunmabsiz; hech kim UZda demokratiya yo'q degani yo'q debsiz - yoki bormi o'sha demokratiya UZda :) (basharaga ahamiyat bering). Endi mavzu bo'yicha

1. yana bir bor, siz bergan narhlar 3,300,000 so'm bir kvartira uchun qurilish shirkatlari narhi va ushbu kvartiraning bozor narhi 500,000 so'm; "people" = government;bozorda mavjud bulgan talab va taklifga hukumat tayanib ish ko'rmayapti. Yahshigina szenariy va hulosani o'ingiz qiling.

2.Davlatning hozirgi sharoitda yoppasiga halqqa kredit berish masalasi fikri absurd; 1. Razimovnoing aytishi bo'yicha 2000-yilda fiscal deficit bo'lar ekan (see Uzreport); 2. konvertazia ochilishi bilan infalasiya ancha tez oshadi va halq davlatdan 100 so'm olib bir yildan keyin 200-250 berishga rozi (hali bu positiv szenariy) bo'ladi desangiz adashasiz.
Keyin IMF repoti bo'yicha UZ kerakli rezervlarga ega ekan, nega boshqa projektlar masalan dehqon ho'jaliklari, kichik va o'rta shirkatlar bank kreditlari olisha olmay sarson. Alternativ javoblar 1. o'sha rezervlar yo'q; 2. rezervlarning ishlatiladigan joyi bor (armiya uchun m-n); 3. "people" = gvmnt

Men sizning bozor kuchlarini ishga solib bozorlarni shakillarshtirish kerak degan fikringizni qo'llab-quvvatlayman - bu tushunarli bo'lsa kerak. Markazlashgan bozor qanday bo'lishini, to'g'ri tushungan bo'lsam, davlat qaramog'ida bo'lishini taklif qilayapsiz; agar shunday bo'lsa bozor yana davlat qo'lida qoladi va bu fikr yana absurd bo'lib qoladi. Tushuning bozor munosabatining ustunu bu hususiy mulkchilik! (agar taklifiningizni bunday bo'lishini hohlamagan bo'lsangiz bunday tushunganligimga aybni menda ko'rmaysiz).

Keyin, nima bo'lsa ham davlat bir hil sektorlarni zararli bo'lsada hamma vaqt subsidiya bilan
ishlatib turadi; ish joyi bilan aholini ta'minlash yoki strategic bir sktor bo'lsa (misol farmers in the US untill 1997)

4-punktda umuman optimist ekansiz Sanatulloh!!! Ammo bu masalada men oldingi fikrimdan qaytmayman. Bizda hususiy mulkchilik degan narsa hali tushunib etilmagan bir muammo!

[King]

Assolomu aleikum!
I think we are diverging from the main topic friends. Sanatullo sizga besh kettim, bitta messageda butun Uzbekiston macroeconomica problemalarini ezib chikardingiz-a. Shularning har bittasini endi alohida topic kilmasangiz bulmaidi deiman.
Kripo you have raised another big issue of the social policy. Of course it would have been very nice if the state can take care of every single citizen in the country. But you see, in order to achieve gretaer prosperity in the future the government has to undertake some harsh measure today. Moreover the way we have chosen doesn't garuantee equal distribution of income- this is the essance of capitalism.
Sanatullo, the creation and development of the credit markets will be determined by the stability and growth in the economy. We cannot just let or even force firms to act in the market if it is not in their best interests to do so. It is all about the incentives. You already stressed the need for the stable credit relationships in the economy. But it is not sufficient. We must ask whether firms are ready and capable to respond to those needs, whether government has created neceassary environment and whether people are ready to take on credit oblogations.

Best wishes!

[Sanatullo]

Assalomu aleykum,

Kripo fikrlarimiz anchagina bir biriga mos kelibdi. Sizning ayrim fikrlaringizga fikrimni bildirmoqchi edim.

1) Kripo> Davlatning hozirgi sharoitda yoppasiga halqqa kredit berish masalasi fikri absurd...

Sanat> Albatta yoppasiga xalqqa kredit berish absurd holat. Real ko`z bilan qarasak hech bir bank sistemasida bunga yetarli darajada kuch ham yo`q. Haqiqiy hayotga nazar tashlasak hammaning ham qarz olishga ishtiyoqi yo`q. Qarz oluvchilarga esa, mening nazarimda, O`zbekiston bank sistemasida yetarli miktorda reservelar mavjud. Chunki O`zbekistonda mavjud 34 bankdan fakatgina ABN-AMRO Bank, Pakhtabank, Tadbirkorbank va Parvinabank'larningina capital/risked weighted asset ratiolari 10-15 foiz orasida, qolganlari esa 15 foizdan katta. Yani BIS ko`rsatmasiga ko`ra Markaziy bankning ushbu ratioga talabi 10 foizdan kam bo`lmasligi kerak. Shunday ekan, deyarli barcha qolgan banklar ushbu 10 foizga yetganlariga qadar o`zlarining aktiflarini ko`paytira olish kuchiga egalar.
Konvertasiyaning ochilishidan keladigan inflatsiya menimcha o`tkinchi. Albatta mamlakatda konvertasiya ochilishidan ma`lum miktorda shock bo`lishi mumkin. Lekin bu qisqa vaqt davomida bo`lishi kerak. Konvertasiya ochilgandan keyingi holat yana oldingi holatga kelishi kerak. Ushbu narsa amalga oshmasa, bundan davlatning hozirda olib borayotgan iqtisodiy siyosati deyarli natijasiz degan fikr kelib chikadi.
Ba`zi korhonalarni kreditlash masalasiga kelsak, yoki kredit tanqisligiga kelsak, KINGning kredit bozorini shakllanishi to`g`risida bildirgan fikriga qo`shilaman. Bularga qo`shimcha qilib asosiy faktorlardan biri sifatida bizda kerakli miqtorda moliya bozorining rivojlanmaganligini, moliya va tovar bozorlarining bir biriga bog`likmasligi kabi faktorlarni berishim mumkin.
Shuningdek, R.Azimovning bank sistemasini restruktrizasiya kilish to`g`risida aytgan fikriga qarasak, bu sohada yaqin kelajakda katta o`zgarishlar bo`lishi kerak.

2) Kripo> Markazlashgan bozor qanday bo'lishini, to'g'ri tushungan bo'lsam, davlat qaramog'ida bo'lishini taklif qilayapsiz...

Sanat> Markaslashgan degani har doyim ham davlat taramog`ida deganimas. Mening yukorida bildirgan fikrimga,va yukoridagi messajlarimga ko`ra ushbu bozorning asosiy o`yinchilari hususiy sektordagi firmalar bo`lishi kerak.

Fikrlarni kutib qoluvchi,
Hurmat ila
Sanatullo

PS. King yangi topic ochish sizga havola.:)Yani siz nima desangiz shu.;)A tak o`qishlarga omad.

[liana]

Rebyat, mojno mne, cheloveku neobrazovannomu pochitat' perevodi vashih thinkingov?

[King]

Assolomu aleykum!
Sanatullo, in the main discussion board, under the topic "Istoriya odnogo investora" I posted some problems related to UTA. Please, take a look. I would like to know what do you think about them?

Best wishes!

[kripo]

BTW, do you know what is the law when a consultant gives a wrong advice?

Example from Germany

the consultant may be sued and, if found guilty, will be punished; the only condition
the person who continues to use the service of the consultant up to three years after s/he first finds that s/he is advised not satisfactorily cannot sue the consultant.
This law was drawn after a case was brought in a German city in 1998.