Nachet Konvertacii...

[elDoraDo]

mlya, Toshkentda, bugun obmen pu8nkt qidirvurib ezilib ketdi odam. 4tasiga kirdim , mlya bittasida ham so'm qolmagan, kuniga 5 mln dan alishtirvotgan ekan....
etib o'tish joiz - kurs $- 1380 bu $dan so'mga. a so'mdan dollarga 1400 - i kvartalga 1000$dan, + bo'lishi mumkin - transfer chekmiye hullas , yo'l cheki...

bu nima yaxhsimi yomonmi? prognoizlar qanaqa?

[KrokoBAZUKA]

That's interesting. V oblastyah ne hvataet baksov a tut v Tashkente sumov netu? Can you be more exact which banks did you go to?

[Tank]

lol
V Tashkente v obmenom punkte emutsa dollari??? Eto chto son? ili prikol.
mda

[buhorogi]

He he Eldorado, Hozir shu tema da boshqa yerda post qildim, lol

Mana mani fikrim:
nashot poslednih strok:
Yaqinda Eldorado bilan gaplashtim. Etishi buyicha hozir Toshkentda Dollar ni Sumga almashtirish qiyin bup qoganmush.
Doesn't it mean that Uzbek soum is getting in value and appreciating? Incerasing demand for soum leads to this.
According to Economic theory it has two effects:
1. It attracts foregn investment, which is good
2. It badly affects balance of trade, increasing imports and decreasing exports, which is of couse bad.
So what is it? Good or bad sign?

[elDoraDo]

hullas, bankki oti esimda yo'g'u, no bugun yana bitta bankka bordim,,, t.e. obmen punktga, - sheratonni ichidagi - mlya o'ttayam manmga topib bera olishmadi. mlya budu, nima balo, o'zim qulolarimga ishonmadim :SUM ne ostalos mush...

koroche-de , man bu sohaga chunmiman-u no, bitta narsani etib o'tmoqchi edim, chto - kirib kelayotgan tovarlar uchun poshlina yana 90% ga, ili yana emas (???) 90% ga osharkan... bu ichki tovarlarning haridini ko'paytiradi,

a so'mni qadri sekin astalik bilan oshishi (at least, exchange jarayoniga davlatning qo'shilishi), yana afg'onning tinchligi (har holda, oldin etishardik-ku, "o'shnimiz tinch emas, shuning uhcun bizaga investiciya kam keladi"deb) , keyin , hmmm, ichki bozor uchun imkoniyat kenglashtirilvotganda, chet eldan uzb.ga kelib korhona quradiganlar ko'paysa kere, since, bizanikilarning o'zi hali bu narsaga tayyor emas...


e hullas-de, mutahassislar bormi - tushuntirsin...

[kanzler]

Eldorado,
man muammoga tushunmayapman.
Bozora alishtisa bulmaydimi?
Yoki rasmiyatchilik uchun Obmen Punktda alishtirish shartmi?

A bozorda qancha bulyapti 'KukShapka'?

[elDoraDo]

anikuni bozorda 1380 taklif qilishti, undan key8in esa vashe yiqitadgan daraja - 1300, a umuman oladigan bo'lse - ikki marta yana alishtirolmadim bozorda,,, shunaqasi ham bo'lib turar ekan... a tak bezopasniy seks - moy vybor...

[Freestyler]

A mojet pravitel'stvo special'no izimayet sumi iz oborota, chtobi povisit' yego stoimost'?

I poshlina (yesli ona i na samom dele budet vvedena) tol'ko poslujit podorojaniyu suma.

Yesli tak, to pravitel'stvo yavno pustilo v hod vse kosvenniye metodi regulirovaniya kursa:
Monetarnaya politika - izimaniye suma, kak sposob umen'sheniya predlojeniya
Protekcionnaya politika - povisheniye poshlin na import.

Skoro, znachit, skoro nastupit' dolgojdanniy den'.
Odnako ne podozrevayet pravitel'stvo, chto takoy vot politikoy ona malo chego horoshego dobyotsya. Ne dal'nozorkaya politika. A stradayut - potrebiteli, narod, Kotoriye opyat' ni o chom ne podozrevayut!

Kosvenno li, ili je napryamuyu - ot monetarnoy politika Keynesianskogo tolka otkazalis' vo vseh razvitih stranah. A mi, ochevidno, na chujih oshibkah uchit'sya yesho ne nauchilis'. Lubim povtoryat' vslepuyu.

[elDoraDo]

ha etgancha - tadbirkorlarning hammasi sinadi endi, bu tochno, baha , esindami dubaiga borganim, shunda bitta taklif bilan ketgandik - uniyam tegiga oldirishdi - bormasimizdan "iyundan boj oshadi" degan habar tarqatishgan edi - mana to'g'ri chiqid, - endi 99% chetdan narsa ob kevotgan sinadi -
1% - bu bojhonada ishlovhcilarning o'zi... adashmasam... he bu halqqi gapi esli cho-de

[KrokoBAZUKA]

Koroche skaju prichinu. Nu na skoka ya znayu shas konec mesyaca - vremya kassovogo plana. I CB ne hochet uvelichivat emissiyu nalichnih deneg. Okazca prichina prosta. Source: very reliable gov official

[Chalpak]

Tushunarsiz, va fikrimcha uncha ham tog'ri bo'lmagan asos...

to'liqroq ma'lumot berishning ilojisi bormi?

[customer]

Nu ras u pravitelstva netu SUMov in cash, to mojet vse-taki beznalom SUMi yest? Esli tak, to kak ras pora perehodit na beznalichniye racheti, pora narodu otkrivat bankovskiye scheta - i nechego toskatsya nalom, kak pervobitniye!Vse eto mojno bilo bi reshit esli bi narod dveryal bankam svoi dengi (a banki narodu!), togda kogda nashi banki budut davat Customer Service?.....
Nahodyas v US ya uje nepomnyu kogda posledniy raz videla summu bolshe chem $20 in cash, any payments go trough automated ATM or credit cards, salary and expenses in checks....... Nadeyus v Uzb toje v skorom budushem budet tak?!

[KrokoBAZUKA]

Chalpak (May 31, 2002 11:15):
Tushunarsiz, va fikrimcha uncha ham tog'ri bo'lmagan asos...

to'liqroq ma'lumot berishning ilojisi bormi?

Bolee podrobno rebyata iz CB mogut skazat. Esli ya ne oshibayus (correct me if I am wrong) to kajdiy mesyac imeetsya kassoviy plan , to est' how much cash should go out of the banks and how much should come in. A esli ty ne vipolnyaesh etot plan tebe pistonov vstavlyayut. So now is the month's end (or those days were) i v tot den banki ne uspevayushie vipolnit svoy kassoviy plan pitalis ne prodavat sumi a naoborot obespechit postuplenie sumov.
kstati nikakoy reakcii eto na bazare ne vizvalo. the black rate is still 1380 and some people @ ippodrom are even buying at 1385

[KrokoBAZUKA]

actually it worked. the buck is going down
1270-1300 at some places as of saturday

[Tank]

Da eto pustoi shag katori ne imeet ne kakogo effecta, tak ya i dumal chto eto prosto dabor summov. Kroka a eto end of month ? or fiscal year?( I mean it's impossible it's not the end of a fiscal year but who knows ur bank system :) ) So what do you think about nex month? will they sell bucks again?

P.C vot - tak vsegda kogda nam ehat damoi to $ obezatelno padaet (ishkilib uiga borganimda 1000 sym bopkomasa boldi) .

[reuter]

Freestyler a pochemu ot Keysianstvo nado otkazatsa? v knigah chitaju chto samy lutshy dlja stran byvshego soyuza metod vedenie reform eto Keysianstvo.... a pochemu pishesh chto Europejskie gosudarstvo otkazyvajutsa ot etogo metoda? mojesh dat' ssylki gde mojno uznat ob etom?

Izvenejus ot temi nemnoshko uhoju

udachi

[Bonik]

3 Jun today Black market rate $ for sums was 1340.
A v bankah vse ravno net sumov dlja obmena $... Eto oznachaet chto mehanizm vse eshe rabotaet.

Pod mehanizmom podrazumevaetsja opredelennaja vlastx kotoraya derjit Black market :) Eto ochenx visokopostavlennie lyudi v chernom :)

Predstavxte sebe predstavxte sebe kurs chernogo rynka nije bankovskogo :) Eto dokazivaet chto mehanizm byl est' i budet... Etim ljudjam ne vigodno otdavat' sumi nive real'nogo kursa :)

F@#CK em all watch 'em small kak govoril Tupac

[Freestyler]

2 Reuters very briefly:

Keynsiannskaya politika:
- harakterizuyetsya gosudarstvennim vmeshatel'stvom v rinochniye otnosheniya (obichno v periodi ciklicheskih krizisov).
- odnim slovom, tak nazivayemiy Demand-side management.
- vkluchayet v sebya:
1. Gosudarstvenniye investicii, kak sposob povisheniya ekonomicheskoy aktivnosti; i
2. Monetarnaya politika: kak sposob regulirovaniya obmennogo kursa, inflyacii i t. d.

V to vremya, kak opit razvitih stran v 70-90-ih pokazal, chto vsyo-taki Keynsianstvo daleko ne samiy effektivniy sposob bor'bi s ekonomicheskim krizisom (ie, ciklicheskiy harakter svobodnih rinkov okazalsya sil'neye luboy Keynsianskoy politiki, at least v dolgosrochnom periode), razvivayushimsya stranam i v samom dele sovetovali provodit' politiku ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Keynsianskogo tolka, no i togda tol'ko predusmatrivayushuyu Gos. investicii, a ne monetarnuyu politiku, o kotoroy ya vyol rech' v predidushem postinge.

Ot takyo aktivnoy monetarnoy politiki otkazivayutsya vo vseh razvitih stranah (ne polnostyu konechno yesho, ot sindroma kontrolya nad rinkom otdelat'sya ne tak-to i legko daje samoy Amerike, kotoraya v period nineshnego krizisa ne raz pribegala k izmeneniyu procentnih stavok).
Odnako primerom togo, chto ot monetarnoy politiki pitayutsya izbavitsya, mojet poslujit' tot fakt, chto pochti vse pravitel'stva v Yevrope reshili izbavitsya ot prav Kontrolya nad CentroBankom. Germanskiy BundesBank naprimer, bil etalonom dlya takih reform...

[elDoraDo]

uahahahaha
dollarning kursi 1100
ana silaga tomosha

surdim

[Surgeon]

V kassovih planah Uzb. samiy nastoyashiy bardak. Kogda ya rabotal v svoey chastnoy klinike, dlya primera ya dam vam kvartalniy nash plan. V marte ya sdal 50000 cum i mne dali plan na sleduyushiy kvartal: aprel 70000, may 140000, iyun 200000. Ya sprashivayu v hokimiyate- otkuda oni vzyali takie scifri, oni pokazivayut na potolok, ottuda. i skazali, ne vipolnish, otpravim nalogovuyu dlya proverki.
Vot on - kassoviy plan

Eldorado, 1100 dan tushmadimi xali....
xa-xa. Eto chto-to novoe ???

[KrokoBAZUKA]

kurs bazar
1200 pokupka
1250 prodaja

kurs bank
1180 pokupka
1250 prodaja

PREDLOJENIYA
razreshit bankam torgovat v kakomto range
for example 1170-1200 pokupka
1220-1250 prodaja

[Bankir]

sevodneshniy kurs

1100 - pokupka
1200 - prodaja

[FREEMAN_MAFIA]

che vse $ i $. mne nujno uznat kurs EURO. ochen seryoznoye delo est. ya slishal chto EURO ne dayut. esli eto tak pochemu. i eshe kakoy u nas reys? mojno govorit chto u nas net demand for euro. pochemu euro ne padayet? jdu otveta...
i eshe govoryat chto s uzbekistana dollar i euro ne vipıskayut. pochemu? eto toje plz.

[Freestyler]

Voobsheto dollar seychas padayet daleko ne tol'ko v Uzbekistane

Dlya sravneniya obmenniy kurs v UK v eto vremya v proshlom godu bil primerno 1,40$ per pound seychas je - 1,46$ per pound sterling.

Predrekayut dal'neysheye padeneye, forward rates are even higher!

the dollar (http://www.economist.com/research/backgrounders/displaybackgrounder.cfm?bg=697972)

[referee]

guys, does it mean that the air plane ticket will cost around $1000?? Before the tickets from US/UK to Uzb cost three times less than written on the ticket, now it must have changed due to little difference between gov.rate and bazar rate of $. Does anyone have the precise figures, or know if the normal prices of Xavo Yullari went down?

[Shurik]

Guys, my friend informed me today that dollar's rate slumped down to unbelievable rate of 980 sums!! :) Is it right info?
Neujeli takaya krutaya diflaciya nachilas'? ili eto prosto igri of "big" asses?

[jm]

Mne skazali, chto vchera kurs bil 900/950.
Eto realno ???
Kto znaet tochneya?

[KrokoBAZUKA]

aha
pomoemu the purchase rate is 950

[Delf]

Nu vot, obeshali je chto razniza mejdu official and black market k iyulyu budet ne bolee 20%. Vipolnyayut :)

Pravda boyus chto kak tolko krediti poluchat, razniza kursov opyat' budet v 2-3 raza....


regards,

Delf

[buhorogi]

vo pervih hochu pozdravit nash Centralniy Bank. Nauchilis rabotat. Nikto ne mog predpolojit chto takoye moejt sluchitsa.
Qaranglar da: snachala CB nachal prodavat i pokupat po bazarnomu kursu, okolo 1400 za SUM, yesli kto to yesho pomnit Eldorado pisal sdes je chto ne mojet nayti SUMi v obmennih punktah. Tak vot skupili vsyo. I mean CB skupil. Ya to dumal chto sravneniye kursov budet oznachat povisheniye oficialnogo kursa i ya dumayu mnogiye imenno tak i dumali a CB reshil sdelat umneye sobral vse SUM i u naroda i teper predlagayet takoy neslishanno nizkiy kurs 950 hehehehe, umno!
Konechno nikto ne smojet pokupat $$$ seychas, vot tak i sravnili kursi. Skoro poluchim nash kredit, i interesno chto budet togda.
Pojivyom uvidim.
tolko blin kak raz maning Uzbga boroshimga shunaqa bup qogai yoqmayapti.
Ehhhh
buhorogi

[Freestyler]

Nu ya bi ne speshil s vivodami naschyot uspeha CB v etom dele.

Vo-pervih, ya somnevayus' chto takuyu {po-vidimosti uspeshnuyu} obmennuyu politiku CB vedyot samosoznatel'no i bez naricatel'noy pomoshi so storoni MVF i USA...

Vo-vtorih, nichego horoshego (v rinochnom otnoshenii at lest) ot iskusstvenno zanijennogo kursa dollara net.
V rezul'tate mi opyat' poluchayem netochniy price-mechanism, chto v dolgosrochnom plane nam mojet ochen' dorogo stoit.
V kratkosrochnom je plane, nam eto budet stoit' podarajaniyem nashego eksporta (ie, ponijeniyem yego).

[Freestyler]

A vot i statya ochen' k mestu:
Узбекистан вплотную приближается к введению конвертации
(http://news.ferghana.ru/detail.php?id=497&code_phrase=)

[blah blah blah]

prochitayte 6oy punkt memoranduma...
http://www.imf.org/external/np/loi/2002/uzb/01/index.htm

po-moyemu nashi prosto hotyat k 30 iyunyu sdelat' tak kak skazano v memorandume, a potom... budet vsyo kak prejde.

a vy kak dumayete?

[sheff']

isskustvennoe padenie kursa dollara k horoshemu ne privedyot. eto govorit o bolshih dolgah, o snijenii exporta, uvelichenii importa, esli subsidirovat' export, to vi znaete kakaya u nas byurokraticheskaya kasha poluchitsya, a esli uvelichivat' poshlini na import, to vnutrenniy proizvoditel budet prodoljat' proizvodit' tuftu. k tomu je dollar slishkom bistro opustilsya. lyudi ne ponimayut shto k chemu. panika, shok, kto to na etom silno zarabotaet, kto to popadyot, umenshitsya i tak nizkoe doverie k sumu, a teper' i k dollaru. dengi dlya ekonomiki eto kak krov' dlya cheloveka, finansi kak krovenosnie sosudi. igrat' s etim nelzya. ohiri bahayr bosin ishqilib

[Mustafa]

Actually, I have recently posted a question related to the Sum conversion measures. Glad to find lot`s of opinions on this matter.

I think, the Sum unification measures are going well. The gap between black and commercial rates is almost eliminated. Hopefully, nominally appreciating commercial rate will be unified with the official rate very soon.

Why the rates are getting close? I think, there could be at least three reasons:
(1) The government has tightened its monetary policy, so that there is less supply of Sums per $. This stipulate higher demand for the Sum, which leads to the currency appreciation.
(2) The government is gradually eliminating foreign exchange conversion restrictions. That is, access to the Sum conversion at the legal market is being widened, so that previous unsatisfied demand for $ (which fuelled activity at the black market) is being gradually met at the legal (commercial) market.
(3) There is less demand for $ itself as a result of weak overall economic activity. Recent introduction of a 90% tariff on imports brought by suitcase traders ("chelnoki") might also be a contributing factor to the drop in demand for $. That is, now, suitcase traders are less willing to buy $ (in order to purchase foreign goods), since they are uncertain about their ability to sell domestically imported goods, which may become more expensive as a result of the tariff.

In general, unification is good. It introduces transparancy; eliminates implicit subsidisation of the state-backed industries (like UzDaewoo, UzBAT, etc.) as well as implicit taxation of agriculture (mostly cotton) and other export-oriented productions; improves market price mechanism; strengthens government discipline in conducting its macroeconomic policy; creates foreign trade and FDIs conducive environment. All theses might contribute to better efficiency and therefore long-run economic growth.

But... These measures must be paralleled by bold institutional reforms (improving law enforcement, private property, prudent governance, etc.) that is important to support free market economy; also, reforms in the financial sector, i.e. banking, are needed to improve efficiency, eliminate directed credits, huge state intervention in banking, and make CB independence real, raising its accountability and credibility. Privatisation process must be accellerated, especially that of large-scale enterprises given better regulated environment. All subsidies, if necessary, must be directed explicitly through the budget. Etc...

Shortly, the foreign exchange policy MUST be paralleled by bold reform measures in other sectors of Uz economy. And then, sustainable and real growth improving overal welfare can be achieved. And that, I believe, what we have to think about and try to constructively discuss. How do you think about this? (Sorry, if I was too technical in my writings).

[Noi]

Vi rebyata yavno nachitalis IMF/WB memorandumov i naslushalis discussions v rossiskih media. Osobenno posledni technical analysis bil nastoyaschim shedevrom s etoi tochki zreniya.

Ya prosto pitayus ponyat pochemu ukreplenie national currency na chernom rinke doljno imet takoi oglushitelni effect dlya ekonomiki v tselom i exporta/importa v chastnosti. Navernoe chtobi eto utverjdat nujno imet kakoe to predstavlenie ob ob'emah torgovli kotorie finansirovalis po kursu chernogo rinka? A tak, bolshaya chast Uzbek exports eto gold and cotton kotorie zakupayutsa po zanijennim vnutrennim tsenam, prodayutsa po international, a viruchka convertiruetsa po official ili commercial rate. Toje samoe s oficial imports: on je financiruetsa po commercial rate kotori prodaljaet to steadily decline, ne tak li?

Drugoe i glavnoe delo, rebyata, eto nashi s Vami karmani, a imenno to, chto teper mi in real (dollar) terms za vse platim doroje chem used to za bileti, mashini, telephoni, etc. Eto esche dopolnyaetsa i tem, chto bolshaya chast importnih tovarov k kotorim mi privikli financiruetsa po chernomu kursu, da i sama torgolvlya imi eto ved chernaya/seraya sphera. Tak vot importeri etih samih rossiskih kolbas i italianskih tufel kak pravilo zakladivali svoi sobstvenni forwardni kurs kotori estestvenno bil nije tekuschego. Teper, kogda kurs okazalsa vishe, tseni oni snijat ne speshat. Konechno je eto deistvuet nam na nervi i zastavlyaet rassujdat o neplavilnosti podobnih shagov i ortritsatelnom vliyanii na welfare. Kstati o welfare: on voobsche to po moemu sostiot is welfare government, forms i citizens. Tak chto final effect na welfare nado esche posmotret kakoi budet. No eto ne sut vajno.

Vajno to chto eto vremennoe yavlenie i dumayu chto nikakoi produmannoi dolgosrochnoi politiki za etim net. Seredina goda - i nado fix horoshie pokazateli za polgoda. Mission IMF (do sih por v Tashkente) kotoromu mi klyatvenno obeshcali, chto spread s chernim rinkom budet sveden k minimumu (no kto je znal chto oni ego s obratnoi storoni sokraschat budut). Krome togo uje mnogo let letom kurs dollara padaet dlya togo chtobi podnyatsa opyat s nachalom hlopkovoi compani. Ya obichno nachinal raschet s poyavlenya postanovleniya KM o merah po organizazii hlopkouborochnoi companii. Da i v socialnom plane eto idiotism takim obrazom valyutu ukreplyat. No bottom line is a zachem on nujen to krepki sum, ten bolee v nashih to usloviyah? Dumayu chto Gov eto prekrasno ponimaet i budet prodoljat snijat official/commercial rates.

Poetomu, ya bi v dannoi situation would go short po sumam i proderjal bi ya eto gde to do november. Potom kak pravilo k novomu godu kurs suma rastet. V silu prebivaniya za predelami otchizni, sam etogo sdelat ne mogu, no nastoyatelno rekomenduyu prosto daje poprobovat na paru milyonov (v sumah estestvenno), chai ne poslednie shtani poterayat riskuete. A dollari meanwhile, mojno na etot srok esche i v bank polojit: est kakoi to bank/i kotori platatyat visoki interest po dollar deposits. Pravda v sumah, no i eto soydet. Tak chto esli kto sdelaet, ugostite pivom kogda ya v kontse goda budu v Tashkente. Kstati, drug - prominent Tashkentski restorator posetoval paru dnei nazad, chto c etim kursom clients sovsem ne prihodyat. Tak chto rebyata ne odnim nam ploho, derjites. Zagranitsa nam pomojet...

[Freestyler]

Soglasen s Noi, ne sovsem soglasen v Mustafa.

Konechno je padeniye kursa dollara - vremennoye yavleniye. K hlopkovomu periodu (ceteris paribus) dollar opyat' povisyat. Ne budet ved' Uzbekistan prodavat' hlopok za deshoviye dollari.

To Mustafa:
Kasatel'no unifikacii, nikto konechno je ne sporit, chto unifikaciya kursov - is a must, kak govorit'sya.
Mi osparivayem to, kakimi metodami dostigayetsya eta samaya qvazi-psevdo-unifikaciya...
Uj tochno ne rinochnim putyom, a putyom iskajyonnih sprosa i predlojeniya, chto ochen' glupo i bestolkovo.

[Real Estate Agent]

Rebyata,

Odin vopros, kak vliyayet izmeneniya v kursah valyuta na rinok nedvijimosti? A imenno na ceni kvartir itd v Tashkente?

zaranee blagodaren,

Agent

[Freestyler]

Voobshe, kogda valuta desheveyet, ludi vkladivayut v nedvijimost' i cenniye metali. Tak chto odin iz effektov - rost cen na nedvijimost' iz-za povishennogo sprosa.

Vtoroy effekt: Yesli ceni na nedvijimost' virajeni v dollarah, a dollar desheveyet, spros na kvartiri budet rasti. Opyat-taki ceni na nedvijimost' budut rasti toje.

V real'noy je jizni (i tem boleye v usloviyah Uzbekistana) takogo roda predskazaniya delat' slojno. Polno kosvennih, necenovih effektov.
Vischitat' chuvstvitel'nost' cen na nedvijimost k etim faktoram mojno tol'ko empiricheski.
S nashimi iskajyonni rinkami predskazat' napravleniye cen rukovodstvuyas' pravilami Economicsa eto vsyo-ravno, chto strelyat' vslepuyu v mishen' za kilometr.

[elDoraDo]

uahahahaaaa..
o'tirvurila shuanqa qilib... kurs 1200 yana, endi, bilmadim yana qancha.. hehe

o'zbek way of leadin life rulezzz

[OPTIMIST]

well, i think appreciation of sum is only in the short-term, whatever the authorities attempt to do in the long term, i don't think they can reverse already established long term pattern, which is wekaning sum.

think in terms of demand for SUMs (UZS). if you look at the balance of payments we see that demand for UZS comes from the current account and the capital account!

Current account: net of exports and imports, i am not sure whether we have positive or negative current account! I think the size of current account is larger than the size of capital account in our case, but it's vica versa in developed countries.


Capital account: investments in and out of Uzbekistan! well, i have to check that out as well. as we seriously begin to attract inward foreign capital/investment, the UZS level vs other currencies should become stronger. But, note that, too much dependancy on FDI will increase our vulnerability to outside shocks.


i don;t think Central BAnk has enough reserves to support the UZS at 900 level, unless the government borrows from the World Bank/IMF. Once UZS is floated, main factors that determine the FX level are gonna be underlying economic activity and political stability coupled with any FDI coming into Uzbekistan. I will not be surprised if the inflation also picks up along the way.

as for the REAL ESTATE Market, i don't think the house prices will rise as long as foreigners can't buy real estate in Uzbekistan, especially Tashkent. Propiska masalasi ham hozir uncha obstacle emas. Puli bor odamla shundok ham uy olishyapti. The general domestic affluency level is too low to push up the prices.

anyway, omad!

[Freestyler]

Whatever the effect on real estate prices, the weakening of dollar is very favourable for inward FDI, which I think Uzbekistan needs desperately.

[Dragon]

I don't whether Uzbekistan fulfilled its obligations according to Memorandum with IMF, but all exchange offices are crowded with people trying to get USD.

Again, Central Bank lost the momentum...

[Freestyler]

That's arbitrage and speculation in work!!! Great

[BoP]

Balance of Payments of Uzbekistan (1993-1999): http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2000/cr0036.pdf

page 71

[?????]

Salom
O'zbekistondagilar bo'lsa, hozir kurs qanchaga chiqqanini bilsak bo'ladimi?
Bilsalaring yozib yuboringlar.
Agar Evroni o'zbekistondagi obro'si haqida ham u bu narsa bed yuborsalaring yahshi bo'lardi.
ho'p Omad